A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
